Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating historical precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh: a preliminary study

The relative performance of global climate models (GCMs) phases 5 and 6 the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5 CMIP6, respectively) was assessed in this study based on their ability to simulate annual seasonal mean rainfall temperature over Bangladesh for period 1977–2005. Multiple statistical metrics were used measure GCMs at 30 meteorological observation stations. Two robust multi-criteria decision analysis methods integrate results obtained using different an unbiased ranking GCMs. revealed MIROC5 as most skillful among CMIP5 ACCESS-CM2 CMIP6 Overall, MME showed a significant improvement simulating compared MME. highest improvements found cold season (winter post-monsoon) higher elevated areas. relatively more than temperature. could capture interannual variability reliably, except winter rainfall. However, systematic wet cold/warm biases still exist Bangladesh. spatial correlations with observed data, but difference standard deviations centered root square errors indicates better geographical distribution lower variables minimum timescales. In terms Taylor skill score, timeframes. findings suggest that added value simulations is not consistent research. it sets precedent future research change risk assessment scientific community.